Risks from volcanic eruptions
Modeling and preventing scenarios in which volcanic eruptions could cause global catastrophe
This profile is tailored towards students studying earth and environmental sciences, engineering and physics, however we expect there to be valuable open research questions that could be pursued by students in other disciplines.
Why is this a pressing problem?
There are a number of ways in which volcanic eruptions could pose an existential or global catastrophic risk to humanity. Supervolcanic eruptions, which reach a magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index, could bring about particularly catastrophic volcanic winters – periods of global cooling caused sulfuric acid and ash from the eruption entering the Earth’s atmosphere. The resulting change in climate could have wide-reaching and devastating effects on global food production.
However, very large scale eruptions are not the only eruptions that could cause a global catastrophe. Smaller volcanic eruptions have contributed to widespread crop failures throughout history. The 1600 eruption of Huaynaputina in Peru precipitated a series of record cold winters worldwide and has been linked to the Russian famine of 1601 – 1603 in which it is thought about 30% of the Russian population died. The eruption of Tambora in 1815 is another example, after which global cooling caused crop failures across Europe in the ‘year without a summer.’
More immediate damage caused by mud flows, tsunamis and debris could also be extremely disruptive. In this paper the researchers identify ‘pinch points;’ areas where a lower magnitude volcanic eruption could disable critical systems such as trade and transport networks, potentially causing collapse of financial markets or food shortages. These could in addition increase the risk of further catastrophes, for example by contributing to political turmoil.
For more information on volcanic eruptions and existential risks, read ‘The Precipice’ by Dr. Toby Ord, these posts from Mike Cassidy and Lara Mani (Post 1, Post 2), and the paper cited above, from which many of the suggestions for further research and references below are drawn.
In the lecture below, geologist Stephen Sparks explores the likelihood of a global catastrophe being caused by volcanic eruption.
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Contributors: This profile was last significantly updated 28/03/2022. Thanks to Vaneesha Jain for writing this profile and to Mike Cassidy for reviewing it. All mistakes remain our own. Learn more about how we create our profiles.
